The light heavyweight division is surely one of the most competitive divisions in the UFC, with the fighters like Quinton Jackson, Wanderlei Silva, Lyoto Machida, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Keith Jardine, etc. Current light heavyweight title holder Quinton “Rampage” Jackson will defend his belt at UFC 86: JACKSON VS. GRIFFIN.

Forrest Griffin earned a title shot by unexpected victory over the man who destroyed the current champ at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005-Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Forrest executed a rear naked choke, forcing Rua to tap at 4:45 into the third round.

After the fight we learned that Shogun couldn’t have conditioned properly because of his knee injury. Nevertheless, Forrest’s performance was flawless that night and he definitely deserved a title shot.

He is a focused, determined guy, who knows exactly what he wants and how to get it. It is another question whether he has tools to beat Rampage. This bout will probably turn into a kick-boxing match as both of these guys love to stand and trade.

Although Forrest has an excellent stand-up, I would give a slight advantage to Rampage. What is the main difference between Rampage from Pride era who was soundly beaten by Wanderlei Silva and Shogun, and Rampage now, who’s been on a tear through the UFC? Which part of Rampage’s game has evolved so much, making him the second P4P fighter in the world?

It’s his boxing, especially his boxing defense. Boxing defense is the most neglected aspect of MMA. Most fighters rely on wild haymakers, leaving themselves open when they attack. Even established strikers like Chuck Liddell make this mistake.

Juanito Ibarra, Rampage’s boxing couch, did a great job. Rampage doesn’t swing wildly anymore, his stance is good, he protects his chin greatly, and he’s learned how to parry, catch, or slip a punch. It’s going to be very difficult to catch him with a clean punch which can knock him out.

Both Forrest and Rampage have a solid ground game. Having said that, I must go with Rampage again due to his incredible strength. He is probably the strongest guy in the division; just remember how he escaped Arona’s triangle at PRIDE Critical Countdown 2004 by lifting the Brazilian high in the air and slamming him against the canvas. A lot of “experts” will claim that Forrest’s ground game is at an exceptional level, and that the TUF alumnus has proved that by submitting Mauricio Rua. It had nothing to do with Forrest’s submission prowess. Shogun was so exhausted that Joe Rogan could have applied that rear naked choke.

Forrest knows that he won’t be given another shot should he lose his fight, so he’ll bring everything he’s got into the octagon. It’s going to be a tough night for Rampage, but I think we will hear his wolf howl at the end. Prediction: Rampage, TKO, 3rd round.