A fight between Georges St Pierre and BJ Penn has all the makings of a classic. It’s been a number of months in the making and finally it all comes together later tonight. It’s a fight that has been described as the biggest in UFC history and you couldn’t really argue. The underlining fact between this feud is that if Penn wins this fight, he will be the first man to have held two titles at the same time in the UFC.

With the Welterweight title on the line, GSP has nothing to gain and everything to lose in the contest. Of course, his pride would be given a nice hefty boost if he was to beat Penn and he would continue to establish his name as one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world.

I honestly believe that Penn is going into this fight thinking nothing but revenge and he’s more than ready for a war. You can tell in his press conferences, his pre-fight comments and in his interviews that he is ready. He doesn’t think he can beat GSP, he knows he can beat GSP. He’s ready to put his body on the line to win this fight.

That might not necessarily be the right approach. GSP has looked a calm figure going into the fight and I expect his calmness to transform into the cage. A very relaxed game plan is essential for the champion as his nerves have often got the better of him once the pressure is cranked up. I’d expect him to grind out a result and dominate in the later rounds. Let’s not forget, GSP only needs to win three rounds. Essentially, he can afford to come out of the traps slow and not cause himself too many problems.

The worry for BJ Penn has always been about cardio. While he looked in great shape against Sean Sherk, I still don’t believe BJ can go all out for five rounds. There is going to be a time when BJ has to go at it in this fight and that will be his worry. If he leaves it too late, he could be out of the fight but if he goes too early, then he could be tired by the end. GSP certainly doesn’t need to go for anything. He can afford to sit back and invite Penn to him.

I’d expect Penn to come flying out of the traps in the first round and try to gain a quick points advantage early. The second and third rounds will be close, but if Penn keep in standing then he could do well. If the fight gets to the final two rounds, the cardio will kick in and that will be the biggest test of the night for the Lightweight champion. If he manages to pull guard and defend well, he won’t need a perfect cardio to keep up with St. Pierre.

There are obvious parallels between the fighters but one big similarity is Penn’s stand up to GSP’s ground game. Both are very solid and both fighters will be quick to gain the advantage in their specialist field. If Penn can stand and trade with GSP, then we could have a new champion. Matt Serra showed the world exactly how fragile GSP can be on his feet and this must be BJ’s tactics.

Of course, it’s going to be a fascinating fight. It’s impossible to call but don’t rule out a late stoppage during the final two rounds. I’m almost certain this will finish later on so don’t be too sorry if you missed the second and third rounds. A betting man should definitely not put a massive wage on this.

If GSP sticks to his game plan, I think he will win. It’s going to take a hell of an effort to dethrone the champion but if anyone out there can do it, it’s definitely BJ Penn.

Martin Smith
martin@ifight365.com