Lyoto Machida versus Thiago Silva has all the makings of a great fight between two of the most technical light-heavyweights in the UFC.

Honestly, it’s a tough one to call and despite popular belief, Lyoto Machida doesn’t necessarily stand out as a clear favourite to win in my eyes.

Machida has always been a relatively difficult fighter to face but at the same time, his lack of killer instinct often highlights his shortcomings. In his thirteen career fights, he has gone the distance eight times. He’s been described as boring by far too many people and that’s part of the reason why the UFC have been reluctant to throw a light-heavyweight title shot at him. A boring fighter doesn’t draw big buys.

Thiago Silva, on the other hand, is the type of fighter who can definitely cause a stir. In contrast to Machida, Silva has only gone the distance once and he is guaranteed to bring an aggressive style to his more relaxed countryman. It remains to be seen just how Machida would cope with a fast opening round, but it would certainly be interesting.

Machida heads into this fight as the favourite in many people’s eyes. His victory over Tito Ortiz will have helped his cause and although it was a comfortable victory for the Brazilian, he still remains an untested fighter when the fight enters the trenches and becomes a straight up brawl. One thing that particularly interested me during the Ortiz fight was that Machida continued to back off from his tiring opponent. If he had shown the incentive to finish Ortiz, he almost certainly would’ve picked up a much earlier victory.

That could definitely favour Silva, who has only left the first round in four of his thirteen MMA fights. Out of his nine victories in the first round, seven have come by TKO or knockout. That is a phenomenal stat and it?ll certainly take something to be added to on Saturday night. I’m almost certain that Silva’s game plan will have a big underline under the word ‘attack’. He’ll want to start fast, damage Machida early and gain the psychological edge before Machida. If he gets in Machida’s head and messes with his game plan, then I can see Silva causing some problems.

Machida’s game plan will be interesting. I can’t see him coming out quick and going for an early victory. He’ll want to wear down Silva and pounce on any potential mistake he makes. If he can take the first round with the judges, he’ll almost definitely take it to the ground for the second round. Both men are dangerous on the floor and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see the referee standing these two up. If Machida can hold his concentration then he shouldn’t be submitted but if Silva passes guard, even into a half guard, then Machida needs to move quick.

One thing that makes me think Silva might edge this fight is his resilience to take it to his opponent. I’ve mentioned above that I feel Silva will come out and bang quick. Take a look at three of his four victories in the UFC. He overpowered Houston Alexander when Alexander was doing fantastic things and he destroyed James Irvin and Tomasz Drwal – two very heavy hitters in the division – with relative ease. What about his last fight? He takes on southpaw Antonio Mendes, gets caught with two brutal headkicks early and still pulls off the win. He knows how to fight.

It’s a tough one to call. If I was a betting man, I’d not fancy a huge wage on this. However, I’d fancy Silva to upset the odds. He’s the man who is expected to lose and I think that might favour him. This very well may go the distance and if it does, it could favour Machida slightly more. If it ends quickly, then the only result I can predict is a Silva win.

One thing is for sure – this will be a good technical battle and one that is definitely worth watching. It might not win a fight of the night bonus but is should be great for the neutral MMA fans.

Martin Smith
martin@ifight365.com