UFC 99 Predictions and the fights to watch
Rich Franklin vs. Wanderlei Silva
This is one hell of a close fight to call. Wanderlei Silva hasn’t hit the ground running in the UFC and he is desperate for a win. In some respects, I think Rich Franklin needs the win as well. A loss for the former middleweight champion against a guy who struggled in the light heavyweight division doesn’t exactly put Franklin in a good state of mind in his new weight class.
Of course, these two will meet at a catchweight bout, so it’s hard to evaluate where a fighter goes after this fight. However, a must win is essential. The fight will be close and I don’t expect either man to take too many risks. Silva will try to stand and trade with Franklin and that could be a recipe for disaster. I may be speaking premature, but I feel Silva’s chin has suffered too much punishment over the years and could be the vital ingredient in a Franklin win. If Franklin works the jab early, picks Silva apart and sprawls well, then he could take the victory in the later rounds. In fact, I’m going for a Franklin win by TKO in round two. It will more than likely be towards the end of the round, but a win is a win, and it’ll be a good one for Franklin.
Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez
This is another very close fight to call. I think it’s unfortunate that one of these men has to end a good run of fights with a loss here. Kongo has been lethal over the last eighteen months and if he brings that sort of form to the table in Germany, then he’ll be a tough opponent. However, Cain Velasquez is one hell of a good fighter. He’s difficult to takedown, hard to stand and trade with and has solid one punch knockout power.
The pressure has been cranked up slightly by the fact that this could be Kongo’s last fight before a meeting with the UFC heavyweight champion. If he dominates Velasquez, he’ll be in good shape, but that is a lot to ask. I’d expect Kongo to work the leg kicks and try to wear down his American opponent. That’s easier said than done as Velasquez is a world class kickboxer. I still think this fight would be something if it went to the judges. It’s not in Velasquez’s nature to go to a decision. I’m going to go with a Kongo win by TKO in round three. He’ll pick Velasquez apart slowly and then counter-punch to take home the win.
Mike Swick vs. Ben Saunders
This could be the fight of the night. For whatever reason, I feel Ben Saunders has the ability to become a major player in the UFC welterweight division. He’s great standing, very difficult to submit and has the heart of a lion. However, an opponent like Swick isn’t easy and Saunders can’t afford to be complacent.
Mike Swick always seems to go to the judges and I feel that’s where we are headed here. If Swick can outsmart Saunders and stay in his guard, then he’ll take home the victory. It sounds simple, but Swick definitely can’t afford to stand and trade or he’ll get caught. I think experience might prevail and I’m going to go with a Swick win by unanimous decision. A disappointing loss for Saunders, but I fully expect him to bounce back.
Marcus Davis vs. Dan Hardy
Marcus Davis may head into the fight as the favourite, but Dan Hardy will give the American one hell of a good scrap. Hardy has been training well and his cardio has always been solid, so this could be fifteen minutes of fast paced action. One thing’s for certain, both men will come out flying and the bad blood in the build-up to this fight is guaranteed to spill over into the cage.
For me, Marcus Davis has yet to prove himself as one of the top welterweights in the world. That’s despite going on a win streak that has seen him lose just one fight in fourteen outings. However, to be considered great, he must perform well against the main players in the division. Wins against Marquardt, Alves and Fitch are impressive, but Davis is nowhere near fights with them just yet. A win against Hardy could put him up there. For Hardy, it is a win-win situation. I’d expect most of America to be going with Davis and that will spur the Brit on. If Hardy can slow the fight down and dictate the action, I think he’ll win. Davis will probably land some solid shots that could trouble the Nottingham born fighter, but Hardy has one hell of a tough spirit and I expect him to grind out an emotional and hard-fought win. A unanimous decision victory for Hardy.
Spencer Fisher vs. Caol Uno
This is quite an interesting fight. A lot has been made about Uno’s return to the UFC, but personally, I don’t think his comeback will sparkle. Fisher won his last fight by submission but has been to the judges three times in his last four fights, and although Uno has won some important fights over the last few years, the fact that he has also gone the distance in six of his last ten fights says it all. The only upside to Uno’s record is the fact that the other four fights he has won by submission (three by rear naked choke and one by armbar).
Of course, you would expect the fight to go to the ground. Fisher will believe that he can win standing, but I’d be surprised if we don’t see the ground game utilised by either fighter. I’d expect Uno to take it to the mat, but it might not be wise considering Fisher is also skilled on the floor. Five of Uno’s eleven defeats have been by knockout and that could be a factor here. I’m going for Fisher by unanimous decision. I’d expect him to grind out the result and stay out of danger on the ground.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Mostapha Al-Turk
When Mostapha Al-Turk was given Cheick Kongo in his debut, I felt sorry for the Brit. I felt Kongo was at the top of his game at the time, and for Al-Turk to face him in his debut with the biggest MMA promotion in the world was very unlucky. However, this is could be even unluckier!
Actually, I think Al-Turk might surprise more than a few people. Cro Cop always has the big game nerves in the UFC for whatever reason and he always seems to struggle against bigger opponents. Nobody will give Al-Turk a chance and he will go into the fight in a win-win situation. If he can win the first round, then he gives himself a great chance. Of course, he’s got to be careful of those leg kicks, but I’m going to plump for an Al-Turk victory in round two by TKO. A shock on the cards I feel.
Terry Etim vs. Justin Buchholz
Terry Etim has improved so much over the last year and his rise up the lightweight ranks has been well deserved. His opponent Justin Buchholz is very tough and his last victory over Corey Hill was impressive. I’d expect Etim to utilize his muay thai again and grind out the result. If Etim can take the fight to the ground, he’ll more than likely pick up the submission win. I’m going to go with Etim in the second round by submission.
Dennis Siver vs. Dale Hartt
Dennis Siver scored a great TKO win at UFC 93 and will want to follow that up with a win infront of his countrymen. American Dale Hartt will be out to spoil the party and will want to forget his last fight which, although ended in a victory, was only earned after Corey Hill broke his leg. Hartt will be up against it here and I think Siver might take the win. With expectation on his back, I think he’ll come through unscathed. A submission victory in the third round for Siver.
Paul Taylor vs. Peter Sobotta
The whole UK versus Germany feud is expected to talked about here. Peter Sobotta is widely regarded as the next big thing in German MMA and the crowd will be well and truly behind their hero. Taylor will be public enemy number one, but I don’t expect that to faze him one bit. Taylor knows how to bring the fight to an opponent and although I don’t think he’ll take the fight of the night honour here, he’ll no doubt give his all for fifteen minutes. I’m going to go for a unanimous decision victory for Taylor. A solid fight, but Taylor’s stand up will score better than Sobotta’s ground game.
Paul Kelly vs. Rolando Delgado
I expect Paul Kelly to win this one very comfortably. Of course, it’s his first fight in the lightweight division, but he’s up against an opponent who I believe is average at best. Rolando Delgado has a very average stand up game and although he has a black belt in jiu-jitsu, I haven’t seen anything from the American to suggest he will even come close to testing Kelly on the ground. I have to give this one to Kelly in the first round by TKO.
Denis Stojnic vs. Stefan Struve
This is one hell of a loser-leaves-town fight. Stefan Struve is a really talented fighter, who was unfortunate to get Junior dos Santos in his UFC debut. Dos Santos is in a different league to the Dutch fighter, but Struve can get to that position with a few wins. In the local shows I have seen him fight, he has been nothing short of superb and it’s a shame he hasn’t had the chance to show that in the UFC. Stojnic was also drawn a bad card in his debut when he was given Cain Velasquez, but he is also a talented fighter. If Struve takes this to the ground, then I think he will win. Stojnic’s ground game has never been tested, but with thirteen of Struve’s sixteen wins coming by submission, I think he might take it. A close fight, but Struve wins by submission in round three.
John Hathaway vs. Rick Story
Undefeated John Hathaway is slowly establishing himself as a top fighter from the UK and I think he’ll maintain his win streak here. His stand up is solid and he has some great punching power. There’s no doubt that Story will be a tough test, but if Hathaway sticks to the game plan, then he’ll walk home victorious. Hathaway by TKO in round one.
Fight to watch: Cro Cop’s return should be great, but Davis and Hardy will be looking to tear each other apart. Has to be Marcus Davis vs. Dan Hardy for me.
Martin Smith
martin@ifight365.com
